The Grand National 2011 - Reflections and early thoughts on the 2012 renewal
The Grand National 2011 was won by Ballabriggs to give Donald McCain his first win in the big race and follow in the footsteps of his father, Ginger, who famously trained Red Rum to three Aintree successes. Ballabriggs had looked a live contender for Aintree from the moment he showed his relentless jumping and staying qualities when powering to success at the Cheltenham festival the previous season and his campaign was always going to be geared towards the National. He is understandably listed at the head of the bookmakers market for the 2012 race at around 16-1 but there should be a word of caution. He will be 11 years of age and will almost certainly be asked to shoulder a stiff penalty for his success. On the plus side he has not had a lot of racing and Don't Push It carried his 11st 10lb burden into a gallant third place last season showing that it is not impossible. 2010 winner Don't Push It, who ended Tony McCoy's long wait for victory in steeplechasing's showpiece event, will again be popular but he will be 12 years of age and you would imagine something else might be coming through the ranks from the A P McManus, Jonjo O'Neill combination with better prospects.
Sandwiched between the pair was the gallant runner-up Oscar Time who so nearly gave amateur jockey Sam Waley-Cohen the classic double of Cheltenham Gold Cup and National in the same season. This came in the wake of some controversy as to whether he was the best choice for the ride on Long Run but he silenced the doubters in the best possible way. Oscar Time, the same age as the winner, is also rated a leading fancy to go one better in 2012 and he can be backed at around 20-1. You would imagine there will only be one race in mind for connections and, given a reasonable weight pull with Ballabriggs, you certainly could not dismiss his chance.
It is always wise to look down the list of National runners for those gaining valuable experience of Aintree who could come back to challenge the following season. The Midnight Club was sent off favourite but a mistake at the third put him back in the field and he was always struggling thereafter. Silver By Nature had been touted as a live contender from Scotland after an impressive trial but ran disappointingly for Lucinda Russell's stable. It may have been that the going was just too quick for him and you wouldn't rule out a return to form and a far more prominent showing if he got his favoured softer surface. He rates a 40-1 chance in the ante-post lists and will be one to keep an eye on when the new season gets into it's stride this winter.
Another who likes to get his toe in is the 2011 Welsh National winner Synchronised. He couldn't quite repeat his Midlands National win of the previous season and signed off disappointingly when pulled up in the Irish National but he will be similarly campaigned and rates a 40-1 outsider for Aintree.
Champion trainer Paul Nicholls will be desperate to add the National to his CV and will have a plethora of entries. Perhaps the most notable would be Mon Parrain who jumped Aintree like a stag only to be outrun in the John Smith's. He will only be 6 years of age next season so it was a remarkable run and, if his trainer decides on the National route for this promising young chaser, you could see 40-1 being a good early investment. There is talk of Denman possibly running in the National next year but it is very difficult for owners to risk their battle-hardened heroes at Aintree under a big weight with their huge public following and I cannot see them taking the risk.
There will of course be many twists and turns in the build up to Aintree as the new season unfolds but as a first speculative investment I will side with Mon Parrain with 1pt each-way at 40-1. Whether or not he makes it to Aintree he will surely be an exciting horse to follow in 2011-12.
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